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Mastercard SpendingPulse: U.S. Retail Sales Expected to Grow 3.7%* This Holiday Season

This holiday season, running November 1 through December 24, U.S. retail sales excluding automotive are expected to increase 3.7% year-over-year (YOY), according to Mastercard SpendingPulse™. The anticipated growth in retail in the U.S. reinforces continued consumer resilience. Mastercard SpendingPulse measures in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment and is not adjusted for inflation.

Looking back at the 2022 holiday shopping season, inflationary pricing and pent-up demand, coupled with excess savings and rising wages allowed consumers and retailers to navigate the season well. After years of inventory and spending habits being in flux, the 2023 season will bring a broader rebalancing across categories, channels, and sectors in alignment with macroeconomic trends.

“While the consumer of holidays past may have been a consumer trying to find footing in a rapidly shifting economy, the consumer of holidays present has taken their power back,” said Michelle Meyer, U.S. Chief Economist, Mastercard Economics Institute. “We expect these individuals to impressively navigate the holiday season, making choices and trade-offs that best suit their lifestyles.”

Key trends to watch in 2023 include:

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